The War is Set Long Before the First Bullet is Fired

In May of 1915, the son of railroad magnate Cornelius “The Commodore” Vanderbilt was travelling from New York to Britain for an important business meeting.

In order to cut down on his fuel expenses, the captain shut off the fourth boiler and slowed the ship's voyage, causing a one-day delay in their arrival.

So on May 7, instead of reaching the port in Liverpool as scheduled, the Lusitania was still cruising past the southern coast of Ireland, where it crossed directly in the path of a German U Boat.

In 1915, the Germans were engaged in unrestricted submarine warfare against Britain and her allies. The submarine fired one torpedo, striking the Lusitania beneath the wheelhouse.

It took only 18 minutes for the Lusitania to sink into the frigid Celtic Sea. The crew was able to deploy only six of their 48 lifeboats. 1199 people lost their lives, almost all of them civilians like the young Vanderbilt.

The Lusitania became the famous event that pulled the Americans into the First World War and subsequently shaped the 20th century.

And it almost didn’t happen.

Had the captain not shut off his fourth boiler, the Lusitania would have been docked in Britain before the German U Boat had entered the Celtic Sea.

Had this chance event not occurred, would the Americans have entered the war?

Yes.

The course of war is set long before the first trigger is pulled. The Lusitania was “the event,” but if not that, anything else would have done it.

Let me explain.

When the course of war is set, anything can tip the balance.

In the early 1700s, British smuggling was increasing throughout Spanish trade routes. The British were frustrated with Spain's mercantile monopoly and sought to undermine their power.

The two countries were also feuding over territorial claims in the Americas. Disputes over land between Spanish Florida and British Georgia were pushing tensions to an all-time high.

So when British mariner Robert Jenkins presented to the parliament in England and claimed that seven years earlier, the Spanish had cut his ear off as punishment for illegal smuggling, Britain declared war.

The one-eared mariner was the event - but a battle over trade and territory had been escalating for decades. The War of Jenkins Ear began in 1739 and merged into the greater War of Austrian Succession, which lasted over ten years, enveloped Europe, North America and India and killed over 500,000 people.

History is littered with stories like the War of Jenkins Ear.

In 1828, riots broke out in Mexico City, resulting in the looting of a pastry shop owned by a French expat, Chef Remontel.

Remontel reported the incident to Mexican and French authorities, but his complaints were met with silence… until ten years later.

In 1838, King Louis-Philippe of France was furious that Mexico had failed to repay millions in loans. He was searching for recourse when he stumbled onto the complaint filed by Chef Remontel ten years earlier.

In exchange for the looting of the French pastry shop, King Loius-Phillipe demanded an immediate payment of 600,000 pesos from Mexico’s president, Anastasio Bustamante - an absurd sum that Bustamante’s empty treasury had no ability to pay. When President Bustamante refused, the French King declared war.

In October of 1838, the city of Veracruz was surrounded and shelled by French ships.

The battle, now known as The Pastry War, was where the famous Mexican General Santa Anna lost his leg after being hit with grape shot fired from a cannon.

When tensions reach a certain point, anything will tip the balance from peace to war.

Are We There?

World War II was a war that stretched from Japan to the United Kingdom and from the Middle East to the Arctic. It wrapped the entire globe in one integrated chaos.

While we watch the entire mass of Europe and Asia destabilize, it begs the question: Is that chaos about to repeat itself?

The Middle East is affecting Europe; the Europeans are affecting the Russians, and the Chinese are affecting America. These parts are beginning to interact the way they did right before World War II.

Wrapping the entire globe in one integrated chaos.

When tensions are high, anything can tip the balance.

History has taught me that the course of war is set long before most people realize it - long before the first bullet is fired. We watch tensions build from a distance, and then, one day, an otherwise arbitrary event changes everything.

To further this discussion, I have been given an opportunity to speak with some of the most connected and embedded individuals in the realm of war and geopolitics.

On November 30, I have been invited to host a private event with a selection of insiders, including US Presidential advisors and leaders from the United States Secretary of Defence. I will speak with terrorism experts, Navy Seal Veterans, mercenary army leaders and a Former Supreme Commander of NATO.

It goes without saying that the invitation to chair this conference has left me more honoured and intimidated than I have ever been before.

This is an online event and will be streamed live.

My mission is to answer one question: Are we entering World War III?

Some of the renowned guests include:

General Wesley Clark is the Former Supreme Commander Europe of NATO. General Clark led military operations during the Kosovo War and was a 2004 candidate for the Democratic nomination in the U.S. presidential election.

Erik D. Prince founded Blackwater USA, the world's largest private military contractor. He has engaged in global security, training and logistics solutions for the US Government and others. He is a Navy SEAL veteran and private equity investor with business interests in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and North America.

Dr. Pippa Malmgren was the Special Assistant to President George W. Bush in the White House and served on The National Economic Council. After 9/11, she was responsible for assessing Terrorism Risks to the economy and developing technology as a source of geopolitical competitiveness.

Elbridge Colby is the Former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense. He is also the co-founder and principal of The Marathon Initiative, focused on developing strategies to prepare the United States for an era of sustained great power competition.

Marin Katusa is a New York Times best-selling author. His most recent book, The Rise of America, was a Wall Street Journal #1 bestseller, #1 on Amazon (all categories), and is a USA Today bestseller.

Katusa is a commodity investor who specializes in geopolitical risk and has visited over 500 projects in over 100 countries. His insights have been featured in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Bloomberg, CNBC, and other outlets.

Dr. George Friedman is a world-renowned geopolitical forecaster, strategist and consultant. He is the founder of Geopolitical Futures and is regularly contracted to provide analysis of international affairs to corporations and governments all over the world.

And many more…

You won’t get this information on FOX, CNN, or any mainstream media outlets. All participants have assured me they will speak candidly at this private, exclusive event.

The organizers are selling the first 1000 tickets at a price of $249, after which the price will move to $500.

As Conference Chair, I was able to secure an advance release for my subscribers. Next week, many of the biggest newsletters in financial media will begin selling tickets. After the first 1000 tickets have been sold, I will not be able to secure any more at the early bird price.

I had to fight hard to secure this early release, and I encourage anyone who is interested in the realism of a potential global conflict to snag an early bird ticket now before the mega publishers begin promoting the conference and the price goes up.

The conference will be held online on November 30th, from 9:00 am to 6:00 pm EST.

Act now. Tickets are available here.