Happy New Year - my gym is already packed with strange faces getting a jump on their new year's resolutions.
I enjoy the January crowds. I don’t compete for the treadmills, squat racks or the ever-popular bench press stations. I find a 7’ x 7’ square on the floor and surround myself with kettlebells. Then I go to war.
I didn’t realize I was a gym “grunter” until I worked out without my headphones. It was a revelation.
Here is a question…
Why do the crowds that arrive every January, like clockwork, disappear by March with the same consistency that they arrived?
Because people commit to goals instead of committing to habits.
Setting a goal is exciting. You visualize the person you will become - richer, stronger, better organized, etc. You get to overlook the work required and focus on the end result - the fun part.
Committing to a habit is boring. A habit is the work we need to do every day. The monotonous repetition, the discipline and the willpower. The not-fun part.
Last week my wife and I got away for our annual strategic planning retreat. I am not sure when we started this habit, but every year between Christmas and New Year, we book a night away, review our biggest wins and losses from the year prior and set the intentions, goals and habits for the one upcoming.
This year there was lots to celebrate. We picked up a new piece of real estate, my wife got her Pilates teacher certificate, and I competed in my first ultra-marathon. We got one more child potty trained, another kid on a pedal bike and one swimming in the deep end. Very fun.
Three years ago, I began writing a weekly newsletter. I intended to build the habit of writing so I could eventually publish my first book. That book is due to be completed this Spring.
Seven years ago, I began cold showers in the morning. I was inspired by a friend who told me he didn’t know if he would win or lose the day - but he could guarantee to win the first battle by starting with a cold shower.
He was right. Seven years in, I still dread it, but I can do it every time. I can win the first battle of the day. Then carry that momentum forward.
Unfortunately, it is time to up the ante on this habit, so this year (day one complete), I am getting out of bed, putting on my flip-flops, walking outside to the bitter cold and getting in my cold plunge tank. Wind and rain be damned. I keep a hammer out there to break the ice on the frigid mornings.
Psychologically this is far tougher than having a cold shower in my warm bathroom. Physiologically, the benefits of a 5-minute cold soak outweigh a 5-minute cold shower. How can I say no?
But these habits are not so much about the immediate benefit as they are about the building of identity. The prospect of authoring a book was daunting - until I built the identity of a writer. Then writing a book became the obvious next step.
Starting the day with a voluntary fight builds the identity of a fighter. Someone who welcomes a challenge and embraces discomfort.
I am making one major change to my habits this year. Despite spending the last year interviewing investors for my podcast, debating macro finance topics and investment trends, I was not aggressively looking for investment opportunities. I felt like I could not tell whether the world was going up, down or sideways.
In hindsight, 2022 was a great year to be patient.
But now, that has changed. I am looking at the market and see a storm brewing. I see the financing terms on the street and listen to where the “smart money” investors on my podcast are pushing their capital.
I am cautious when I watch investor sentiment. I don’t care when the bitcoin maximalists are buying bitcoin, and I don’t care when the gold bugs are buying gold - but you’ve got my attention when the generalist funds and sector-agnostic money managers all start moving in the same direction.
Every few years, these pools of capital consolidate into one asset class, and an avalanche of wealth is created. If you are ahead of the avalanche, you can add a zero to your net worth.
During the last two years, the trend has consolidated in US dollars. Investors have piled into USD for safety, stability, and for lack of a better idea. No one could tell whether the world was going up, down or sideways.
But like any overcrowded bet, it became bubbly, and investors began jumping ship in November - looking for the next safest thing.
This is the avalanche I believe is forming. Investors, funds and central banks are selling US dollars - but the question is, what are they buying?
Central banks have been purchasing gold at a rate faster than they have in the previous 55 years. In Q3 of 2022, central banks bought almost 400 tonnes of physical gold - the largest acquisition rate ever on record.
Why is that?
More importantly - what happens next?
I interview three money managers weekly for my podcast - over 150 interviews per year. Right now, every sector-agnostic portfolio manager I talk to is increasing their exposure to gold.
Why is that?
More importantly - what happens next?
I don’t call timing on markets. Ever.
But if my hunch is right, in a few months, I will be receiving a daily flood of investment opportunities in the metals sector. But by that time, the smart money will have already placed their bets.
I haven’t had a habit of being in the city for the last year. I hid out in my little mountain town and built up my podcast. It is time for that habit to change. It is time to get back to the fray.
2022 was chaos. Now it’s time to make money. It is time to amplify the market habits.
It is time to sift through investment opportunities every day. It is time to know who is working on what, who has raised money from where, and what assets are changing hands.
I’ve seen this rodeo before. When a market turns - gold, crypto, broad equities - it turns fast. At that point, you are either watching the bets you made or chasing the stocks you wished you’d bought. Never chase an avalanche. Get yourself in front of it, and wait.
I am hosting the largest metals investment conference in Canada on January 29th and 30th in Vancouver, BC - the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference.
Over 80 legendary investors will join me live on stage to discuss where they are investing capital for 2023. Titans such as Robert Kiyosaki, Grant Williams, Rick Rule, Lynette Zhang, Ross Beaty, Brent Johnson, Randy Smallwood and dozens more.
There are over 250 mining companies signed up to exhibit in the trade show.
This is the Super Bowl of natural resource investing conferences.
If you want to make money in the next metals bull market, make a habit of getting in the fray. Build your network, stay on top of it, and become part of the industry.
Don’t focus on the goal. Focus on the work, and the goals take care of themselves.
Come to my conference. Tickets are available here.