Europe cannot function without Russian gas, the massive rise in energy prices would quickly collapse their economies - the most vulnerable businesses are already turning insolvent:
“Dorset pub closes after £58,000 increase in utility costs.”
"Pub's closure warning: 'My energy bill went to £35,000 from £13,000.”
"Her electricity bill has jumped from £10k ($12k) a year to £55k ($64k). She is working out her options but will likely be forced to close."
You can go down the rabbit hole and find hundreds of these - there are a dozen more each day. These are small, owner-operated businesses, the least likely component of the business community to be saved by government intervention - but they are only the first domino.
The real question is how much will politicians let their economies break before they rethink their moral positions and take a neutral stance against the war in Ukraine? I am not concerned about global events if I can't feed my kids.
Civil unrest is increasing. On Saturday, an estimated 70,000 people took to the streets of Prague demanding a neutral stance on the war in exchange for access to Russian energy.
As of writing, 160,588 Brits have signed https://dontpay.uk/, pledging to not pay their electric bills on October 1st in a mass protest. Their goal is to reach one million pledges this month.
The writing is on the wall for an inevitable outcome. Politicians in the EU and UK can either keep the moral high ground as their economies collapse or turn a blind eye to the war in Ukraine in exchange for access to cheap Russian energy (and we haven’t even talked about grain).
Whenever something seems “inevitable,” I start wondering what I am missing. Please share if you think I am wrong about the above potential outcomes.